Plan, Estimate and Budget

  • Plan
  • Estimate
  • Budget

When will the project be completed and how will it be executed? The “when” and the “how” are vital attributes of the project plan and the plan is one of the project managers most important tools.The plan is in its nature a tool to navigate towards a future desired destination. Time is a key success criteria in most projects. Not only the time when the new product is delivered, deadlines are needed to move things forward and milestones are key to monitor if the project follows the plan. By defining how the project will be executed, the plan is functioning as a mechanism to align people inside and outside the project about the overall path to follow, It is also putting order into the myriad of deliverables and activities that are to be carried out. The good plan is rooted in solid understanding of -the work to be made, it is aligned with actual resourced needed and is clear about underlying assumptions. When navigating in unknown or turbulent waters (long term) planning can be useless, and rather than obeying a plan that is not valid, it make better sense to face realities and adjust to actual conditions.

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The path to a future destination – There can be many paths available but the project must select one road to follow towards the project goal. The below statements can be used to verify if a plan seems good:

  • The plan provides a clear direction towards the destination
  • The plan has clearly stated milestones 
  • The plan provides options for early feedback on the product
  • The plan is rooted in solid understanding of the work ahead
  • The plan is taking into account who shall do the work / and how fast they work
  • The plan is addressing risks and contain sufficient buffer
  • The plan is clear on underlying assumptions

 

Overview plan – When things are reaching a certain level of complexity it will in many cases pay off to create simple one-pager versions of the plan. These simple representations of the overall path are valuable in the planning process to maintain overview (you can get stuck in details), and also a strong tool when sharing the plan with the project team and stakeholders. 

It may require some graphical effort to transform a lot of underlying information into condensed easy-to-explain one-pagers. The typical content is:

  • Simple calendar view
  • main activities,
  • Key milestones
  • Other relevant key information needed to explain the plan

 

Detailed plan – While the overview is showing the path, the backbone of the project plan is the detailed plan. It is in the detailed plan the bricks in the puzzle: deliverables, activities, resources and start/end days are joined into an executable plan. 

The level of details in the plan must match the purpose of the plan. More details does not necessarily mean better quality but pay special attention when relevant details are missing and replaced by (implicit or explicit) assumptions 

 Below some checkpoints for the detailed plan

  • Deliverable and activity break down is made and estimated (to sufficient level)
  • Non-functional scope is incorporated into the plan
  • Dependencies are identified and addressed
  • Start – and end dates are defined
  • Clear responsibility for deliverables and activities is defined
  • Resource requirements are defined and availability is confirmed
  • Velocity data is available (actual knowledge about team productivity)
  • Sufficient contingency is incorporated to address risks

 

The planning process – The planning process is often valuable in it-self. Making breakdown of deliverables and activities usually reveals tasks, dependencies, risks, options and challenges nobody thought of. 

Having the team involved in the planning process is an option to share knowledge and to build understanding of the work to be made and to establish buy-in to the plan including the deadlines. 

As with everything else, also planning gets better when you exercise. Consider the planning process an investment, use the time needed initially and iteratively during the project to establish and improve plans on different levels including:

  • Overall project planning, 
  • Planning 3-6 months ahead, 
  • Short term 1-3 weeks planning (sprints)

 

Make it happen – Plans are followed when somebody has the dedication to make things happen, and the mechanisms in place to trace progress and the ability to act when things do not go as it was planned.

Make sure to define who is responsible for monitoring and reporting progress. In bigger projects this responsibility will normally be split on more persons. Also make sure to have iterative routines in place to track progress (weekly or bi-weekly)

Establish mechanisms to track progress and make sure to do it in a way that can deliver “early warnings”. Waiting until milestones are missed can be way too late. Burn down graphs, sprint reviews, regular ETC updates are some techniques that can be used to deliver factual progress information.

In a big project with many things happening in parallel, there will always be activities that for some reason develop in a way that was not projected, require special attention and creative problem solving. Be ready to have an eye on each finger, so you can spot those challenging activities and be ready to invest in finding solutions.

Adjust to realities – It can happen that it is not just single activities that get out of control but rather the overall plan. Initial estimates may have been too optimistic, vital activities may have been missed or the plan approach is not right. It is always tough to realize when the plan is not good, but it is even worse to have a plan that is not being followed, not trusted by team and stakeholders, and not leading the project in the right direction with desired speed.

Activities
Establish project plan
Define overall plan ideas(Initial draft)
Document assumptions
Define tools to document project plan
Define who to involve in planning process
Plan and conduct planning meetings
Create overview plan (main deliverables and milestones)
Create detailed plan (w/detailed WBS and resource view)
Use detailed scope as basis for plan
Align project plan with resource availability
Define key milestones
Define critical path
Identify risky activities
Incorporate contingency into plan
Define external dependencies
Review plan / get plan approved
Confirm baseline plan version
Share project plan with team and stakeholders
Create plan presentation (overview)
Share plan with team and stakeholders
Share detailed parts of plan with specific target groups
Establish a process for assigning tasks to resources and for follow-up
Define a process for progress tracking
Plan updates
Prepare phase changes
Define process for plan updates
Risks
Unclear process for progress tracking

Problem: The project lacks an efficient method for regular progress monitoring.

Consequence: It is difficult to know whether the project is on track. If things go wrong, early warnings may not be given and the opportunity to adjust the approach is missed.

Insufficiently shared project plan

Problem: The project team and key stakeholders have limited awareness of and commitment to the project plan.

Consequence: There is a risk that the project plan will not function as a key reference point on what, how and when to deliver the project. Team members may not be aware of activities to be performed and may not work towards common milestones.

Complex project with many integrated activities

Problem: The planning process is time-consuming, the plan is complex and tight procedures for reporting during execution needs to be established.

Consequence: Planning may be underestimated, agility during execution is limited and any change to the plan may have cascading effects.

Tight project plan

Problem: The project plan has a tight (or unrealistic) time frame with limited or no contingency.

Consequence: It may not be difficult to realize the project within the defined time frame. Just a few deviations or unforseen activities can destroy the plan.

Poor project plan

Problem: The plan is missing specification of the work to be done, has unrealistic estimates or lacks commitment from project team members and key stakeholders.

Consequence: It will be uncertain whether the project can be executed within the defined success criteria. The plan may not function as a key reference point for stakeholders.

How much will the project cost? Providing an estimate is easy but providing a valid estimate which (with accuracy) predicts the real price for a project, may be much more difficult. Estimates are vital and made on different levels and with different purposes. Estimates are used to predict the price for entire projects. Estimates are used to set a price on specific features and estimates are used as a vital source for planning. Multiple factors impact the validity of estimates. Estimating small chunks of well defined work can be done more precisely than initial estimates for big projects with many unknowns. Estimating things that the team has done before provides more accurate estimates than estimating new things. It is easy to be optimistic when estimating but also difficult to be realistic and take everything into account. Especially when things are big and new it is worth being extra careful with estimates, to invest in the estimation process, to be clear on assumptions and to incorporate sufficient contingency so accuracy in estimates (or rather lack off…) is mitigated.

Activities
Create estimates
Define an estimation method
Define estimation proces
Involve key resources in estimation process
Use detailed scope as basis for estimation
Create estimates
Document assumptions
Estimate non-functional scope
Identify deliverables with high uncertainty
Incorporate risk contingency
Review estimates
Align estimates with key stakeholders
Create baseline estimates
Update estimates
Follow-up on estimate accuracy
Re-estimate
Risks
Estimates with lack of experience or limited reference data

Problem: The estimation team has limited subject matter expertise and limited access to useful reference figures.

Consequence: There is a significant risk that estimates contain a high degree of uncertainty. The business case may be threatened and the basis for planning the project may be inaccurate.

Lack of risk contingency

Problem: Estimates do not contain sufficient contingency for unforeseen events.

Consequence: Unforeseen events may make it impossible to execute the project successfully. There is a risk that the project will experience budget overrun and delays.

Estimates made without defined list of deliverables and activities

Problem: Estimates are not based on an actual breakdown of the work that should be carried out in the project.

Consequence: There is a risk that estimates will be uncertain (too low). During execution, it will be difficult to track actual progress against planned work.

Estimates not aligned with stakeholders’ expectations

Problem: Estimates have not been aligned with the key stakeholders that provide resources and commitment for the project.

Consequence: There may be a potential conflict between the project owner and the project. The required resources may not be allocated.

Optimistic estimates

Problem: The project does not contain necessary contingency for unforeseen events or the estimates are unrealistic.

Consequence: The project will not be able to meet its cost and time objectives and a key prerequisite for planning is missing.

What is the price for the project and is sufficient funding available? There are many good reasons why the project needs to be in control with the money. Many projects cannot deliver within what is initially estimated. No matter whether it is because of poor initial estimation or because of poor execution, then budget overruns will impact project owners’ overall view whether the project is a success or not. Having the funding that is needed to conduct the project including sufficient buffer for unforeseen challenges means stability. Overruns on the other hand gives extra work to chase money, to report, explain, replan and re-scope. In the worst case the existence of the project can be in danger. Creating the initial budget is a key task including being clear on the assumptions. Monitoring actuals vs budget and being able to identify deviations and early warnings is equally important. Keeping a budget will in most cases require a special focus, effort and ability to (brutally) control scope and timeline.

Activities
Establish project budget
Identify budget procedures to be followed
Define format for budget
Document budget assumptions
Create budget
Align budget with (detailed) scope
Align budget with project plan and staffing plan
Incorporate contingency
Allocate sufficient funding for stabilization after go-live
Review budget
Get budget approved
File baseline budget
Define process for follow-up on budget
Establish time registration processes
Establish processes to track project costs
Define frequency for budget follow-up
Define follow-up routine
Define reporting format
Establish change procedure
Define tolerances (need to involve project owner and SG)
Risks
The project has an endless need for money

Problem: Extra funding has been granted to the project multiple times.

Consequence: Sunk cost considerations are forgotten and the project may be pursued beyond financial reasoning. In addition, stakeholders may lose faith in the project.

Limited tracking of actual vs. estimated costs

Problem: Actual vs estimated costs are not tracked consistently.

Consequence: Early warnings about underestimation may be missed. The opportunity to initiate early corrective action is missed and important learning is not being incorporated into future estimation activities.

Budget lacks risk contingency

Problem: The project budget does not contain risk contingency for unforeseen events.

Consequence: The project is vulnerable to small deviations from the planned costs and will need to spend time replanning or refunding these deviations.

Project is underfunded

Problem: Inconsistency between project scope (what we want to do) and the available funding (what we can do).

Consequence: It may be difficult to realize the defined scope with what’s available. The project may have to spend time reducing scope or finding additional funding.